Performance, 14-Day Rolling Returns, Key Drivers and Outlook | Data as of 12 October 2026

 

Gold has delivered an exceptional return since January 2024, rising from around US$2,073 to US$4,214 per ounce in the supplied dataset. This represents a gain of approximately 103% in less than three years.

 

The rally, however, has not been without setbacks. After strong gains through 2024 and 2025, gold reached a record spot price of around US$5,595 per ounce in January 2026 before correcting sharply. Rising oil prices, a stronger US dollar, higher real yields and profit-booking all contributed to the decline. Gold gained approximately 26.3% in 2024 and 67.5% in 2025 but is down around 3.9% in 2026 based on the supplied period-end observations.

 

The longer-term performance remains impressive, but the change in momentum raises an important question: can gold's structural demand withstand an environment of higher yields and a stronger dollar?

 

Performance since 2024

 

 

 

Fortnightly Rolling Returns

 

Annual returns tell us how much gold gained or lost over a year, but they do not reveal how consistently those gains were delivered. Rolling returns help fill this gap by showing how gold performed across successive 14-day periods.

 

The results highlight a clear contrast: 2025 was a strong and relatively consistent rally, while 2026 has been marked by weaker returns and significantly greater volatility.

 

 

 

Note: Based on 598 rolling-return observations calculated using historical gold-price data from Investing.com. Some comparison windows span 15–18 calendar days because prices are not available for every date in the series. The rolling windows overlap and are therefore not independent observations

 

What Powered the 2024–25 Rally?

 

• Central bank buying: Annual purchases of around 1,000 tonnes since 2022, versus a long-term average of approximately 600 tonnes, have provided structural demand.

 

• Strong ETF inflows: Gold ETFs attracted a record US$31 billion in Q3 2026, with holdings reaching 4,256 tonnes by September-end.

 

• Lower interest rates: Fed rate cuts between September 2024 and December 2025 improved gold's appeal relative to interest-bearing assets.

 

• Weaker US dollar: Dollar weakness made gold more affordable for overseas buyers and supported the rally.

 

• Geopolitical uncertainty: US-Iran tensions and broader economic uncertainty increased safe-haven demand.

 

Why Did Gold Correct So Sharply in 2026?

 

• Higher real yields: The US 10-year real yield rose from 1.94% at the beginning of 2026 to 2.76% on 23 September, making interest-bearing assets more attractive and increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold.

 

• Stronger US dollar: Dollar appreciation made gold more expensive for overseas buyers, adding pressure on prices.

 

• Geopolitical tensions and oil shock: The US-Iran conflict pushed oil prices higher, intensified inflation concerns and led markets to reassess the outlook for interest rates.

 

• Profit-booking and forced selling: After the sharp rally, investors began locking in gains and unwinding crowded positions, amplifying the correction.

 

Tailwinds: what supports gold

 

Central bank buying, safe-haven demand and record ETF inflows are the strongest supports today. Interest rates and the dollar helped in 2024-25 but are no longer helping.

 

 

Headwinds: what pressures gold

 

Rising real yields and a firmer dollar are the main pressure now. Weak physical demand adds to it, while the earlier fall in investment flows has already reversed

 

 

 

Conclusion: the long-term story is intact, but volatility has increased

 

Gold is most likely to stay in a wide range while real yields and the dollar decide the direction. These scenarios are conditions to watch, not price targets or forecasts.Gold has more than doubled since January 2024, supported by central bank diversification, investment demand and geopolitical uncertainty. Yet the rolling-return analysis shows that the market has become less consistent in 2026, with negative median returns and much larger short-term declines.

 

The correction does not, by itself, establish that the long-term trend has ended. Equally, the structural case for gold should not be used to dismiss the risk of further weakness.

 

For long-term investors, gold may continue to serve as a portfolio diversifier, depending on their objectives and existing allocation. For investors considering fresh exposure, staggered purchases may help reduce the risk of committing the entire amount at an unfavourable entry point.

 

Ultimately, the next sustained move will depend on whether central bank and investment demand can overcome the pressure from real yields and the US dollar.

 

Sakshi Rawat | Research Analyst

 

Research Team

 

Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The analysis is based on historical data and cited sources; past performance does not guarantee future returns. Gold prices are subject to market risks and volatility.