Domestic Equity Market Performance

 

Indices:

• • Sensex -0.92%, Nifty 50 -0.82% – 6th straight week of losses
  • Mid-cap & Small-cap segments also ended in red

 

Key Drivers:

 

• • U.S. President doubled tariffs (50%) on Indian exports, hurting manufacturing & growth outlook
  • Escalating trade tensions → fear of further FII cash market exit
  • FII outflows, rupee depreciation, and lower economic outlook from global institutions added pressure
  • Losses limited by falling crude oil prices (supply glut) & weaker dollar

 

Sectoral Performance

 

Gainer:     Nifty Metal +5% – strong Q1 FY25 results, urban & rural demand recovery

 

Losers:      Nifty IT -7% (sharpest fall), Nifty FMCG -2.3%, Nifty Pharma -2.8%, Nifty Realty -2.5%,  Nifty

Defence -1%

 

 

Global Markets Performance

 

U.S.:

 

• • Dow Jones: -0.74%
  • S&P 500: -0.37%
  • Declines on tariff tensions and rate path uncertainty.

 

Europe:

 

• • FTSE : +0.30%
  • DAX (Germany): +3.15% – strong rebound despite global concerns.

Asia:

 

• • KOSPI (S. Korea): +2.95% (largest regional gain)
  • Hang Seng (HK): +1.43%
  • Shanghai Composite: +2.11%
  • Gains as US–China tariff tensions eased, partly offset by slowing growth worries.

Debt Market

 

RBI Decision Impact:

 

• • Rates kept unchanged; stance neutral → market expected more dovish tone / further easing.
  • Wait-and-watch approach to gauge effects of earlier rate cuts.

Yields:

• • 10-year benchmark (6.33% GS 2035): Up 3 bps to 6.40% {from 6.37% previous week}

 

.

 

Economic Update

 

PMI Data:

• • Services PMI: 60.5 (Jul) vs 60.4 (Jun) – 11-month high on strong export demand
  • Composite PMI: 61.1 (Jul) vs 61.0 (Jun)

 

Monetary Policy (Aug MPC Meet):

 

• • Repo Rate: 5.50% (unchanged)
  • SDF: 5.25%, MSF & Bank Rate: 5.75%
  • Stance: Neutral – targeting CPI at 4% ± 2%, supporting growth
  • Focus: Monitoring growth–inflation dynamics before policy changes

 

RBI Growth Outlook:

• • FY26 GDP: 6.5%
  • Quarterly: Q1 6.5%, Q2 6.7%, Q3 6.6%, Q4 6.3%
  • Q1 FY27: 6.6% (risks balanced)

RBI Inflation Outlook (CPI):

• • FY26: 3.1%
  • Quarterly: Q2 2.1%, Q3 3.1%, Q4 4.4%
  • Q1 FY27: 4.9% (risks balanced)

 

 

Commodity Update

Gold

• • Record high after U.S. extended tariffs to 1 kg gold bars (Swiss bars now taxed at 39%, up from 10% in July).
  • Triggered by U.S. Customs ruling (July 31) following Swiss refinery subsidiary petition.
  • Weak U.S. economic data → higher Fed rate cut expectations → boosted safe-haven demand.
  • Outlook: Volatile amid uncertainty over Trump’s tariff policy.

 

Silver

• • Above $38/oz, +3% weekly gain.
  • Rate cut hopes, new tariffs boosted safe-haven appeal.
  • Weak payrolls & higher jobless claims → market pricing in Sept cut, possible Dec cut.
  • Tariffs (10%–41%) raising U.S. slowdown fears; Fed Governor Christopher Waller speculated as next Fed Chair.

Crude Oil (WTI)

• • Flat close after rebound from 2-month lows.
  • Supported by doubts over Russia–Ukraine peace plan acceptance, weaker dollar, and stock rally.
  • Fell earlier on reports of potential U.S.–Russia peace deal; recovered after Trump threatened new tariffs on Russian energy buyers.
  • Trump also doubled tariffs on Indian exports to 50% over Russian crude purchases.

 

Best Regards
 

Alpha Research

Disclaimer: The information on this document is provided for information purpose only and is available in the public domain. It does not constitute any offer, recommendation. The views expressed by the Alpha Capital Research are based on current market conditions and information available publicly.