As we celebrate 75 years of India’s independence, it fills me up with nostalgia and pride. Further, the way ahead excites me even more.

The journey ahead, in the era of the Amrit Kaal, India @ 2047 is envisioned to be much ahead in terms of economic growth and development in all areas – technology, financial, infrastructure, education, defense, etc.

This glorious path ahead will not be complete with the appropriate role played by the Indian stock market. The popular benchmark index Sensex has been a robust partner in the Indian economic growth all through its existence, starting from 100 points to touching over 60000 points.

Sensex has helped investors make strong returns over the years with a CAGR of almost 16% since its inception. Though, not all has been hunky dory in this journey, there have been phases of tug of war between the bulls and the bears.

The index faced challenging times during 1991-1992 while the Indian economy was liberalized. During the period Sensex rose sharply helped by the infamous scam and soon after it all came tumbling down as the news broke about market manipulation.

Even, the decade of the 2000s was rocky. During the period of the Great Financial Crisis in 2007-08, Sensex tanked sharply on numerous occasions. However, the reversal after the crisis was also healthy. The index continued to face occasional turbulence in the years ahead.

The next major crash was in 2020 owing to the covid-19 pandemic. It has been a case of ‘sometimes sunshine, some rain’ for the Sensex – ample bright days to more than compensate for the gloomy days.

The bouncing back from the lows of March 2020 to crossing the 60000 mark has been phenomenal. All in all, the prominence of Sensex and equity markets has grown over the years. The recent participation of domestic investors has aided the domestic market in staying relatively unfazed.

Due to the digitization drive and greater awareness about the capital markets, there has been a sharp rise in the demat account holders in the recent years. The same is expected to continue in the coming decade as well, as India charters the path to lead the world economic growth.  

As per some credible estimates, India’s GDP is likely go up sharply on a sustained and robust path towards being a $20 trillion economy by our 100th year of independence 2047 (in a scenario of approximate annual growth rate of about 7-8%).

This indicates towards a substantial shift in the world economic order towards India. With the key role played by strong reforms, policies and governance, the Indian economy is expected to attract large and sustained foreign investment flows in the coming years.

As we move towards being a developed economy in this ‘Amrit Kaal’, our market capitalization to GDP ratio is expected to go up significantly. While the market-cap to GDP in the developed USA is about 2, there seems to be a lot of potential in India where the ratio hovers around 1.

Sensex crossing 70000 in the medium term will not be a surprise. The technology driven growth will be visible across sectors – financial, education, health, defense, etc.

On the capital markets front, this means a large movement towards mutual funds assets under management, increased demat accounts, boost in financial literacy, much higher percentage of the population to participate in the stock markets.

So my dear readers, embrace yourself for the ‘Indian stock markets’ Mahotsav. Keep entering the stock market at cheaper valuations.

From ‘Har Ghar Tiranga’, let us move towards ‘Har Ghar SIP’. Let us educate the world around us about basic financial literacy – from young kids to home support-staff. Let us all participate with enthusiasm and trust in this journey.

Stay focused towards your investment goals and do not make any hasty exists.  Stay invested for long term. ‘Time in the market’ always beats ‘timing the market’.

Remembering the iconic ‘big bull of India’, let us continue to be bullish on Indian growth story in the Amrit Kaal – making it our ‘elixir’ for wealth creation!

Best Regards

 
Ms. Tarunika Jain Agarwal Ph.D. 

Alpha Research