1) Yield Curve in US has inverted

The 2 Year Yield is higher than 10 year yield.

This has happened after 2005.

This is a lead indicator of recession. It means both monetary and fiscal policy are not conducive for growth.

Volatility will be high and it won’t be easy to make money.

2) Bitcoin or Bitcoin ETF – Which is better?

Bitcoin ETF like BITO tries to replicate Bitcoin price by trading in futures.

Since its launch, ETF has been able to replicate the Bitcoin price with 95% correlation.

But on many instances, ETF has underperformed Spot Bitcoin.

3) China Equities 1Y Forward PE reaches the lowest level since 2018.

1Y Forward PE is trading at 10 and offers good valuation.

I know this is a very attractive level and anyone investing now will make very good returns.

But not getting confidence to invest.

Investing is tough.

4) IL&FS Fiasco had big impact on Valuation of NBFCs

HDFC’s valuation advantage over HDFC Bank vanished following the collapse of IL&FS.

PB Ratio of HDFC always used to be higher than HDFC Bank because of higher Return on Asset for HDFC.

After IL&FS, both of them moved similarly

5) Nifty PE had contracted by 21% between CY21 high and CY22TD Low.

The sharp decline in Nifty PE is the net result of a 14% decline in Nifty Index and 8.5% growth in earnings.

EPS growth is strong in India which reduces the probability of huge correction in market.

Dr. Mukesh Jindal CFA, CFP, CAIA, Ph.D.

Alpha Research