Please find below the 5 charts that reveal interesting stories on Markets and Investing.

1) Indian Economy: Slow Sales, Hopes of Recovery Ahead:

• Sales growth of India’s Top 500 listed companies has stayed around 7–8% for the last 9 quarters.
• The main reason: global slowdown caused by high interest rates worldwide.
• Outlook is improving — expected rate cuts globally and possible GST reductions could boost demand and sales in coming quarters.

2) US Tariff: Small GDP Hit, Big Job Risk:

• The US has imposed a 50% tariff on select Indian goods.
• Key sectors like IT, Pharma, Smartphones, and Electronics are not affected.
• Impacted sectors include Textiles, Carpets, Diamonds, Shrimps, and Household items.
• Estimated GDP impact is just 0.2% — relatively low.
• But these sectors employ around 2.1 crore Indians, mostly low-income workers.
• A quick resolution between India and the US would help protect jobs and exports.

3) GST Reform: A Bold Push for Consumption:

• The Indian government has proposed major GST reforms aimed at boosting consumption.
• The new structure will simplify GST into just two slabs — 5% and 18%, removing the 12% and 28% rates.
• Consumer-facing sectors like autos, FMCG, agrochemicals, electronics, telecom, insurance, and apparel are expected to benefit.
• Lower GST rates could lead to price cuts, higher sales, and stronger economic momentum.

4) Global Rate Cuts: A Trigger for Economic Revival:

• The US Federal Reserve has kept interest rates high since 2023 to fight inflation, which slowed global growth.
• In 2024, the Fed reduced rates by 1%, bringing them down to 4.5%.
• Further cuts are expected from September 2025, with rates likely to reach 3% by end-2026.
• The RBI may follow suit, starting its rate cuts around the same time.
• Lower global rates could boost demand, corporate sales, profits, and stock market performance across economies.

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5) Portfolio Churning: A Costly Mistake for Long-Term Investors:

• Chasing top-rated or high-performing equity funds often leads to poor long-term returns.
• Research shows that allocating more to last year’s winners — whether large, mid, or small cap — usually results in underperformance.
• A contrarian strategy, investing in underperforming categories, tends to deliver better outcomes over time.
• Frequent portfolio changes come with tax implications, exit loads, and hidden costs.
• The most effective approach is to buy and hold — it offers stable returns with lower volatility over the long term.

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Investor Guidance: At current levels, it is prudent to invest only that money in equity which is not required for next 5-7 years. 

 Best Regards

Dr. Mukesh Jindal CFA, CFP, CAIA, Ph.D.

Alpha Research​​​​​​​

Disclaimer:  The perspectives provided reflect our expectations of the economy, market, and investments, which may or may not materialize. Investors are encouraged to conduct their own due diligence before investing.