5 Charts, Interesting Stories on Markets, Metals & India’s Strategic Growth Sectors

By Alpha Research

5 Charts, Interesting Stories on Markets, Metals & India’s Strategic Growth Sectors

Dec 31, 2025

Please find the 5 chart analysis as below and let me know if modifications are required.

"Sharing our key observations across equities, silver, and the private-equity space segment within defence sector, based on recent market movements and structural trends:

Source: Trading view

Sharp downtrend: The ratio has fallen from ~100+ to ~59 over the year, indicating silver has significantly outperformed gold on a relative basis.

Risk-on / reflation signal: A declining ratio typically aligns with improving growth expectations, higher industrial demand for silver, and relatively stronger cyclical sentiment.

Mean-reversion zone approaching: The current level (~59) is well below long-term averages (~65–70), suggesting silver is closer to being relatively expensive vs gold, and future returns may depend on whether industrial momentum sustains.

Source: Trading view

Nifty to Silver Ratio ≈ 100.6

Equity vs. silver performance: Nifty 50 (blue) showed moderate growth (~50% total gain in USD over 5 years) with relatively stable movement, whereas silver underperformed initially but started accelerating sharply from mid-2024.

Silver breakout: Silver surged dramatically in 2025 (~155% total gain), far outpacing Nifty, reflecting strong bullish momentum in precious metals over the last 12–18 months.

Increased divergence & volatility: The gap between silver and Nifty widened sharply in 2025, highlighting silver’s higher sensitivity to macroeconomic factors and risk-on/risk-off flows compared to equities’ steadier trend.

For new capital, equities currently offer a better risk-reward ratio. Mean Reversion after a year of underperformance, Nifty is expected to "catch up."

Silver: The "Momentum" Play

If investors are considering silver now, you are "chasing the rally."

Increased divergence & volatility: The gap between silver and Nifty widened sharply in 2025, highlighting silver’s higher sensitivity to macroeconomic factors and risk-on/risk-off flows compared to equities’ steadier trend.

Structural Bull Case: The long-term story (5-year view) is still strong due to the silver deficit and its use in AI and EVs.

Strategy: Do not put a lump sum into silver at these record highs (~$75+/oz).

India has been seeing a perfect confluence of tailwinds in defence & space sector

Source: Press information Bureau, GOI; 360 One Asset

2015–2019: Defence R&D orders stagnated/declined (~-5% CAGR) despite ~1.9% of defence capex allocated to R&D, indicating under-investment and weak order momentum in the pre-reform period.

2020–2024: Sharp inflection with ~5× increase in R&D spends and ~63% CAGR in orders, lifting R&D share of defence capex to ~9.3% by 2024—signalling strong policy push, indigenisation focus, and a structurally higher growth runway.

Defence Exports & rising private participation

Source: 360 One Asset

Export growth: Defence exports have grown at a strong ~41% CAGR from ₹15 bn (2017) to ~₹236 bn (2025E), reflecting rapid scale-up of India’s defence manufacturing and export capability.

Rising private Participation : The private sector’s share in defence exports has increased from ~13% to ~65%, highlighting a structural shift from PSU-led exports to private players driving innovation, execution, and global competitiveness.

SPACE OPPORTUNITY – TECHNOLOGY-DRIVEN ACCELERATION

Source: Defence Industry report, 360 One asset

India’s global space market share is set to expand from <2% to >8%, with the market opportunity growing at ~26% CAGR through 2030.

Over ₹30 bn raised by 100+ Indian space startups since 2020, highlighting deepening private capital and innovation in launch, satellites, and downstream applications.

India has launched 430+ satellites for 34 countries, reinforcing ISRO-led credibility and commercial export potential; space exports are estimated to grow ~37x by 2033.

India as a strategic global hub: Defence indigenisation and space-tech innovation position India to evolve from a cost-efficient supplier into a trusted global systems integrator, capturing higher value across design, manufacturing, and exports.

Private-sector–led innovation cycle: Rising R&D intensity, startup funding, and policy support will enable faster technology adoption (AI, advanced materials, satellites, drones)—driving sustained export growth and long-term global competitiveness.

Best Regards

Ayush Singh

Alpha Research

Disclaimer: The perspectives provided reflect our expectations of the economy, market, and investments, which may or may not materialize. Investors are encouraged to conduct their own due diligence before investing.