Equity Market Performance

• Benchmark indices BSE Sensex (–1.14%) and Nifty 50 (–0.87%) declined, ending at 82,627 and 25,471 respectively, weighed down by a global tech rout and risk-off sentiment.

• Markets fell as the U.S.–India trade deal euphoria faded; AI-related fears hit Indian IT hard, with investors concerned about competitive pressure from U.S. tech peers. U.S. labour data (130K jobs added, unemployment at 4.3%) reduced Fed rate-cut expectations further.

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• India VIX spiked 11.3% over the week, reflecting rising market uncertainty and risk aversion.

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• Sectoral trends:
  • • BSE IT –8.04% – worst performer; AI disruption fears triggered intense selling in outsourcing-model stocks.
    • BSE Auto +2.29% – boosted by U.S.–India trade deal framework and strong passenger vehicle sales (+12.6% YoY in Jan 2026, fourth consecutive month of growth).

Debt Market

• Bond yields fell as the weekly state debt auction drew robust demand and Jan 2026 CPI inflation came in softer than expected at 2.75% YoY. A decline in U.S. Treasury yields also provided support.

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• Government’s decision to switch ~₹75,504 cr of near-maturing securities into longer-dated RBI-held bonds eased supply concerns and improved the fiscal outlook.

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• 10-year G-sec (6.48% GS 2035) yield fell 6 bps to 6.68% (vs. 6.74% last week). Repo rate at 5.25%; Call rate at 5.04%.

Macroeconomic Update

• India CPI inflation eased to 2.75% YoY in Jan 2026 (revised base year 2024); urban unemployment edged down to 6.7% (Oct–Dec 2025), with rural unemployment improving to 4%. India Composite PMI (Jan 2026): 58.4.

• Net direct tax collections rose 9.4% YoY to ₹19.43 lakh cr till Feb 10, 2026 (corporate tax +14.5%; personal tax +5.9%); Forex Reserves at $717.06 bn (as of Feb 6, 2026).

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• Money supply grew 12.0% YoY (fortnight ended Jan 31, 2026); Bank Credit to Commercial Sector grew 14.1% YoY. Fiscal Deficit at 54.55% of BE (Dec 2025).

Commodity Market

• Gold rose +1.65% WoW to $5,042/oz as softer U.S. CPI (2.4% YoY, Jan 2026) revived Fed rate-cut hopes. MCX Gold CMP: ₹1,55,895; faces resistance at ₹1,61,000; RSI near 72 (overbought). Brent Crude: $67.68/barrel (–0.34% WoW).

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• Silver –0.74% WoW to $77.40/oz; MCX Silver CMP ₹2,44,360 (third consecutive weekly decline). MCX Crude Oil fell 1.75% WoW; CMP ₹5,723 – pressured by easing U.S.–Iran tensions and possible OPEC+ output hike.

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• MCX Copper fell 2.70% WoW; CMP ₹1,209.50 – weak China demand ahead of Lunar New Year weighing on sentiment. Natural Gas recovered on colder U.S. weather forecasts; EIA raised 2026 U.S. output forecast to 109.97 bcf/day. INR at ₹90.53/$.

Best Regards
 

Alpha Research

Disclaimer: The information on this document is provided for information purpose only and is available in the public domain. It does not constitute any offer, recommendation. The views expressed by the Alpha Capital Research are based on current market conditions and information available publicly